Food for a Warming Planet

Farmers have experienced healthy harvests in 2008 and 2009 because of initiatives to rebuild stocks and drive prices down. However, this year, water shortages, flash floods, and extreme heat are starting to weaken crop production.

• Skyrocketing projections. The United Nations reported that global population would hit 10 billion by the end of the century. This means that food production must double by later in the century.
• Low farm production, high demand. Due to the increasing population and the rising affluence of countries, farm output has been failing to keep up with demand. The consumption for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans has overtaken production during the past decade. This caused two steep spikes in the prices of international grain starting from 2007. Some grains even doubled its cost.
• Curse of higher prices. Price escalations have made the lives of poor people even more difficult. It helped increase the number of hungry people, which was projected to be as high as 940 million this year. High prices infuriated many people causing food riots and uprisings that destabilized governments from Mexico to Haiti to Yemen.
• Destabilizing factor on the rise. Weather disasters like floods and droughts due to climate change have brought failed harvests. Global warming drastically affected potential yields of important agricultural countries and it contributed to price gyrations in the market. Scientists once thought that climate change will not be a problem for agriculture. However, under extreme weather conditions, farmers are now getting a hard time increasing food production to meet the demand.
• Shaken Assumptions. Scientists have long believed that raising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere would promote crop production. However, studies and real-world tests have shown that this exercise does not contribute to higher crop yields.
• Green Revolution. It is possible to be more productive and resilient to climate change. However, these entail new crop varieties (like flood-resistant rice) and new farming techniques. Many countries have already joined the Green Revolution to address these needs. However, much of the work has yet to begin. It might take decades to see the results.

 

Source:

Gillis, Justin, “Food for a Warming Planet.” New York Times (Manila Bulletin Supplement),

11 June 2011.